The lecture considered the crucial importance of technological change. In the talk Frances Cairncross discussed the impact of the internet and associated technologies on the economy, on companies and work, on governments and on society.

The world has seen three major technological revolutions to do with transport.

Four general observations on technologies from a historic and current perspective.

Technological change, the Internet and similar communications technologies will have effects on the economy, on companies and work, on government and on society. Examining each in turn.

The Economy
Economies have historically suffered huge booms and busts, most recently the dotcom boom and crash. But earlier centuries saw the boom in railway shares in the UK in the 1840’s followed by a crash and the South Sea Bubble.

The boom or bubble goes but the technology remains. The bubbles or booms assumed there were super-profits to be made and some people did make them. But the boom gives buyers more information with four consequences.

On Companies and Work
New technologies will make it easier for companies to manage and out source services. Hollywood is a prime example where a team of individuals, firms and skills is assembled to make every film. Out sourcing is not necessarily the correct approach or solution but it becomes easier to manage with new technologies. While work can be decentralised a reverse effect of new technology is to increase the power of the centre.

Some barriers to entry in a business can be lowered by new technologies but others may rise.

Technological change can also change corporate culture. For many people work is a place to go and a place to enjoy a significant part of their social life. The future will see work as something to be done independently of location. This can lead to the curse of accessibility, being constantly available. Some activities need a physical presence but others can be conducted remotely.

On Government
Government is the world’s largest service industry. Within political constraints and ideologies it will be freed to out source services it provides. It could shrink the state?

As companies have greater freedom to choose their location while trading worldwide on the Internet this can have dramatic effects on Government revenues. No longer do firms e.g. Amazon have to be located in high cost and high tax areas.

Technology will also enable new concepts in democracy. For example the recent experiments in online voting in California. But technologies can also give Governments powers of surveillance and monitoring - the further development of Big Brother?

On Society
Society is made up of networks based on trust, common interests, location and social capital. New networks are emerging e.g. eBay and eTraders that are attempting to create similar communities of common interest and similar levels of trust.

But networks are and will become increasingly mobile. Short Messaging Services (SMS) or Texting was only introduced in December 1992 today over 100 billion text messages are sent every month.

The exponential growth of the Internet is also driving the spread of English as a common language. English will become the world’s operating system.

Will technology bring about a new digital divide or reinforce existing divisions. The technology is getting cheaper and increasingly accessible but do individuals have the education to use and benefit from the new opportunities?

In her speech Francis Cairncross went on to discuss four consequences of new technologies, the four P’s – policing, privacy, pornography and property.

The Internet crosses borders at the speed of light. Policing and taxation are traditionally based on location or geography. These become irrelevant or easily disregarded as information flows freely around the globe. There is evidence that Al Qaeda used the Internet to plan September 11th.

The increasing spread of CCTV systems can be used to monitor and spy on the innocent public. Privacy is almost impossible on the Internet. Wherever you surf you leave a trail of data.

Many new technologies have been given their initial impetus and commercial success through pornography - VCR’s, Polaroid cameras, etc. The Internet is also a ready purveyor of pornography. It is increasingly difficult to keep people away from nasty things but it is easier to track and monitor them.

The Internet is a real threat to intellectual property. While Napster has been closed down dozens of peer to peer file swapping networks have emerged threatening the revenues of record companies and their artists. Intellectual property is the basis of much of the world’s commercial and professional business.

Frances concluded with some observations about the impact of technologies on the arts.

With ever easier access to information there is a danger that the winner takes all. People will have readily available information about the best, through reviews, websites, etc. The ordinary will not be sufficient as people search for the real thing.

Technologies can spur or aid the development of new art forms. In England the 1950’s Goon Show was a perfect use of radio whose wacky comedy could not have been achieved through another medium. More recently the Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy similarly exploited the spoken word to provoke imagery and imagination. Television for good or bad is going through a phase focussed on reality TV – Castaway, Big Brother, etc.

Technology can permit individual artistic endeavour to flourish. In February 2002 there were reported to be over 50,000 blogs on the World Wide Web. But it is harder to find quality amongst this burgeoning of ‘creativity’.

The Web and other technologies will increase accessibility and will put increasing pressure on the real thing. Air travel and low fares are increasing the number of people who want to see Venice, Angkor Wat and the Mona Lisa. Will they be satisfied by a Disney version of reality?

Finally, copyright and intellectual property. A cat and mouse situation. The Web can permit wider access to the arts and entertainment but will effective mechanisms emerge that enable artists to be paid for their endeavours.